Israel Election 2026: Odds and Polls for Prime Minister

Quick answer: Israel votes for a new Knesset on Tuesday 27 October 2026. On Chipstars Predictions on 26 October 2026, Gadi Eisenkot was about 54% to be the next prime minister, ahead of Benjamin Netanyahu at about 26%. Final polls put Eisenkot's Yashar party first, but neither bloc reached the 61 seats needed to govern.

Updated: 26 October 2026

• Election day: Tuesday 27 October 2026, polls close at 10 p.m. Israel time
• Seats: 120 in the Knesset, 61 needed for a majority
• Threshold: 3.25% of valid votes to enter the Knesset
• Final polls (23 October): Yashar 22 to 23 seats, Likud 19 to 21, Together 14 to 15
• Next prime minister on Chipstars Predictions: Eisenkot about 54%, Netanyahu about 26%, Bennett about 12.5%, Lieberman about 2%
• Most seats on Chipstars Predictions: Yashar about 73%, Likud about 26.5%
• Official results: Due on 4 November 2026

Who is favoured to be the next prime minister of Israel?

Gadi Eisenkot, a former chief of staff of the Israel Defense Forces who now leads the Yashar party, is the favourite on Chipstars Predictions. In the market "Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?", Eisenkot stood at about 54% on 26 October 2026.

Benjamin Netanyahu, the sitting prime minister and leader of Likud, was second at about 26%. Naftali Bennett, who heads the joint list Together with Yair Lapid's Yesh Atid, was at about 12.5%. Avigdor Lieberman of Yisrael Beytenu was at about 2%.

A second market, "Israeli Legislative Election Winner", asks which party wins the most seats. There, Yashar was at about 73% and Likud at about 26.5%.

What do the final Israel election polls say?

The last three TV polls before the legal cut-off, from Kan, Channel 12 and Channel 13, all put Yashar in first place. They gave Yashar 22 or 23 seats, Likud 19 to 21 and Together 14 or 15.

By bloc, the parties seeking to replace Netanyahu had 52 to 56 seats and Netanyahu's bloc had 50 in all three polls. Arab-led parties had 14 to 16. No bloc reached 61.

Two smaller lists sat near the 3.25% threshold. Ofer Winter's party was below it in all three polls, and Yoaz Hendel's Reservists passed it in only one.

Why the largest party may not form the government

Winning the most seats does not make a party leader prime minister. After official results, President Isaac Herzog consults every party and gives the mandate to the candidate with the best chance of building a majority.

That candidate has 28 days to form a coalition and can ask for a 14-day extension. After the November 2022 election, Netanyahu needed 58 days to form his government. If nobody can build a majority, Israel returns to the polls, with Netanyahu staying on as caretaker prime minister until a new government is sworn in.

The Arab-led parties are a key question. Ra'am leader Mansour Abbas has said he is open to backing the bloc around Eisenkot, while several parties in that bloc have ruled out a government with Ra'am.

How the prime minister market on Chipstars Predictions works

The prime minister market settles on the person who is officially sworn in as prime minister after this election. A caretaker prime minister does not count. Because coalition talks can take weeks, this market may stay open well after election night.

Each answer is shown as a percentage, which is the price of a Yes. The percentage moves with news: the exit polls at 10 p.m. on Tuesday, the official results and each step of coalition talks. A correct Yes pays more the lower the percentage you bought at. In simple terms, a Yes bought at 25% returns about four times the stake if it is right, and one bought at 50% about twice. Your bet slip shows the exact return before you confirm.

New to this? Read our guide on how prediction markets work.

How to find the markets: open Predictions, tap the search icon (magnifying glass) at the top right and type "Israel". The markets are called "Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?" and "Israeli Legislative Election Winner".

FAQ

When is the Israel election 2026?

Voting takes place on Tuesday 27 October 2026. Polls close at 10 p.m. Israel time, when the TV exit polls are released.

What are the odds for the next Israeli prime minister?

On Chipstars Predictions on 26 October 2026: Eisenkot about 54%, Netanyahu about 26%, Bennett about 12.5% and Lieberman about 2%.

When will we know who the prime minister is?

Not on election night. Official results are due on 4 November, then coalition talks can take weeks, and the market settles only when a prime minister is sworn in.

Can the percentage change after I bet?

Yes, the market keeps moving, but your bet stays at the price you took.

Sources

• Times of Israel, final polls before election day
• Ynetnews, final Israel election polls
• Asharq Al-Awsat, Israel's elections, four possible scenarios
• Wikipedia, 2026 Israeli legislative election
• Market percentages: Chipstars Predictions, 26 October 2026

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